Day 1 Outlook Day 2 Outlook Day 3 Outlook Days 4-8 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Categorical Probabilistic
Categorical Day2 0700Z Outlook

ACUS02 KWNS 221732
SPC AC 221731

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


Scattered thunderstorms are expected over much of Texas and
Oklahoma, with a few extending into the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys. Small hail is possible across parts of northern Texas into
Oklahoma during the day.

A southwesterly flow regime aloft will persist from the southern
Plains into the Northeast as an upper trough moves across the
Rockies and into the High Plains by the end of the period.
Meanwhile, and upper ridge will remain intact across the Southeast. 
At the surface, a stalled front from the middle MS Valley into
southeast TX will retreat northward late in the day, with
strengthening southerly wind profiles in anticipation of the
approaching shortwave trough. The result will be a substantial area
of elevated thunderstorms across much of central and northern TX
into OK during the day, wither other activity developing across AR
and MO as well.

...Northern TX into southern OK...
While a cool surface air mass will remain in place, very strong
warm/theta-e advection will occur during the day and into the
evening with southerly 850 mb flow increasing to nearly 50 kt. This
will occur beneath cool mid/upper level profiles, with long
hodographs in the cloud bearing layer. A large area of elevated
thunderstorms will occur across much of northern TX during the late
morning and spreading into OK and toward the Arklatex later in the
day. Some model differences exist as to how much activity will form
and how cellular it may be. However, a marginal hail threat is
possible with the stronger cores. A Marginal Risk may be required in
later outlooks once predictability becomes greater.

..Jewell.. 02/22/2018