FXUS64 KMOB 172040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
340 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Upper trof that moved across
the region early yesterday is now located along the eastern
seaboard lifting to the east northeast through Wed afternoon. West
of this feature residual low level moisture mostly over the
adjacent gulf waters skirted the immediate coast earlier today has
now shifted further offshore resulting in mostly sunny skies for
all locations of the forecast area for the remainder of this
afternoon. Aloft an upper ridge of high pressure located over the
sw conus and northern Mexico is progged to shift east, reaching
the lower plains states, much of Texas, and the western gulf
through Wed afternoon. At the surface high pressure stretching
from the Mid Atlantic states to the northern gulf and SE states
will continue to build SSW across the deep south and northern gulf
through Wed afternoon. With this pattern expect mostly clear
skies tonight followed by mostly sunny skies on Wed. A light to
moderate northeasterly flow mostly over the lower half of the
forecast area will continue through early Wed then diminish better
during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Temperatures will continue to be near seasonal averages with lows
ranging from the mid 40s for most of the upper half of the forecast
area and the upper 40s to middle 50s further south, including the
immediate coast. Highs Wed will climb to the mid 70s for all
locations in the forecast area, including the immediate coast. 32/ee

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...
Overhead mid-level ridge continues to amplify over the southeast
states Wednesday and Thursday. This keeps the dry airmass of PWATs
less than 0.50 inches in place. Expect very minimal to zero rain
chances due to these stable conditions with clear to mostly clear
skies. Temperatures will follow diurnal trends with lows in the mid
50s and highs in the upper 70s.

Friday the ridge shifts east and the corresponding surface high
pressure centroid becomes more established over New England.
Locally, this will cause winds to veer from northeast to easterly
throughout the day and will begin the process of bringing Gulf
Moisture back into the region. However even with the increasing
moisture, rain chances remain minimal with max temperatures in
the low 80s. 17/DJ

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...
Expect the next widespread rain event to arrive locally late in the
weekend into early next week. On Saturday, an upper level sub-
tropical jet streak assists in deepening the short wave trough over
the Texas Panhandle. The developing surface low in Texas starts to
drive winds locally to become more out of the southeast thus pulling
more moisture out ahead of the system. Precipitable water values will
be rapidly increasing throughout the day from less than an inch in
the morning to over 1.7 inches. This is above the 75th percentile
according to sounding climatology for this time of year so with this
comes increased rain chances for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

This moisture airmass remains in place Sunday and Monday. Along with
this, the aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to dive
southeast from Texas. Positive vorticity advection is expected to
drive deep lifting over the central Gulf Coast region. This could
result in widespread rainfall over the area. On a good note, models
show the shortwave moving rather progressively, so it should be in
and out of the region by Tuesday. Over the weekend high temperatures
will return to being in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

Tuesday once the shortwave moves through a trailing cold front will
push south, quickly dimishing dew points, and generating breezing
north winds leading to below normal temperatures midweek next
week. 17/DJ


.MARINE...A strong surface ridge of high pressure will continue to
build south over the north central and southeast states including
the northern Gulf waters through the week leading to a moderate to
occasionaly strong easterly wind flow over the marine area through
Fri. The highest winds and seas will likely occur during the
overnight and early morning hours each day due to a better temp/pres
gradient setting up across the region each night. Seas offshore will
continue to range from 3 to 5 feet through the first part of the
weekend then gradually subside by early next week. Small craft
should exercise caution through much of the week. 32/ee


Mobile      50  77  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   54  77  61  80 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      57  79  64  82 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   44  76  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  44  76  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      44  75  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   48  77  56  82 /   0   0   0   0




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