000
FXUS64 KBMX 171934
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
234 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Wednesday.

High pressure will build across the area with fairly clear skies
for the next 24 hours. Plenty of radiational cooling in place
tonight once again so 40s will be the rule across the area with a
few upper 30s in our northern most locally cooler spots. For
tomorrow, we will once again see a fairly clear day with highs a
few degrees warmer as heights begin to increase over the area.
Generally look for low to mid 70s across the area/

16

.LONG TERM...
Through Tuesday.

Surface high pressure remains in place over the Southeastern US,
centered over the Central Appalachians through the rest of the
week into the weekend. This will mean continued dry, easterly flow
for Central AL and near normal diurnal temperatures. On Friday,
upper level ridging moves across the Eastern US as an amplified
trough digs into the Western US. As this occurs, the high pressure
is pushed eastwards, shifting our winds more southerly. This will
bring in a more moist air mass ahead of the approaching trough.
Models have come into better agreement on the evolution of this
trough as it traverses the CONUS. Expect the trough to deepen as
it moves into the Central Plains and stretch another fairly
substantial cold front southward through the ArkLaTex region
Sunday morning. Currently, the GFS and Euro have about a 12 hour
difference in timing with this cold front as it moves eastward
through MS. For now, will split the difference and keep Central AL
rain free through Sunday morning, then increasing rain chances
Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Both the GFS and Euro try
to develop a closed low at the base of the trough as it moves
through the Gulf States on Monday, though I`m not confident of
that actually occurring. Ultimately, expect increasing rain
chances for the early part of next week as this trough axis moves
through. For now, not expecting a severe threat with this system
as the best upper level dynamics remain displaced well to the
north, limiting the shear for our area.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions for the next 24 hours and longer as high pressure
build in over the region. Winds will gust in the south (MGM and
TOI) to 15-18 kts. Calm winds tonight then back to 7 kts from the
east-southeast after 15Z Wednesday.

16


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Cool and drier air will continue through the rest of this week.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds.
There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     43  72  43  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    45  73  46  75  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  47  74  49  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  48  75  49  79  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      47  73  49  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      47  72  50  76  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  47  76  49  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        47  75  51  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion