000
FXUS62 KTAE 110010
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
710 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

.UPDATE...

The current forecast remains on track for tonight. With sub-
freezing temperatures expected once again overnight, be sure to
protect the 3 P`s: plants, pets, and pipes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [628 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A dry airmass with high pressure and clear skies will prevail
overnight. The current thinking is that winds will go calm over most
of the area, and thus we will see sufficiently favorable radiational
cooling conditions for another freeze across most areas. There is
some guidance that shows light westerly surface winds across the
northern portions of the area late tonight, but we think winds will
be calm for long enough to reach freezing across most of the area
with the exception of a few coastal areas, and even in those areas
some frost looks likely overnight.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A deep upper level trough will remain present over our area
throughout this period. Embedded in the large scale trough will be
a shortwave that will move across our area on Tuesday; underneath
this feature, another cold front will push southeastward across
our area from Tuesday morning through the early afternoon. Despite
forcing from this feature and PV advection ahead of the upper
shortwave, very dry air will prevent any precipitation from
developing across our area. Highs will mostly be in the 60s each
day, with some upper 50s in parts of AL and GA on Tuesday behind
the front. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s to lower
40s inland on Monday night, with upper 40s to lower 50s along the
Gulf Coast. Behind the cold front on Tuesday night, lows will drop
to the lower-mid 30s inland and upper 30s along the coast.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Upper level flow will become more zonal over the Southeast on
Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of the trough moving off to
our east. Dry conditions will prevail across our area as mid-level
dry air remains entrenched across our area. Deep layer moisture
will increase from Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next
cold front, although there is some disagreement regarding the
amount of moisture return as well as the timing of the front. The
GFS brings the front through early Friday morning and does not
produce any rainfall in our area before cooler/drier air returns.
Meanwhile, the latest ECMWF holds off the front until Friday
evening, allowing ample deep layer moisture to build across our
area with periods of rain developing throughout the day. Due to
the uncertainty, decided to leave a slight chance of rain across
most of our area on Friday before dry conditions return Friday
night through Saturday.

Uncertainty among the forecast models continues through Sunday,
with the GFS bringing another front and deeper moisture into
northwest portions of our area while the ECMWF keeps our area dry
through the weekend. Seasonably cool temperatures will prevail for
much of this period with highs ranging from the 50s-60s and lows
from the 30s-40s. Warmer conditions could return on Sunday, with
highs around 70 possible in north Florida.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...

VFR conds will continue for the next 24 hours with light
northwesterly winds.


.MARINE...

Light winds and seas will prevail from tonight through Monday.
Expect winds to increase on Monday night and Tuesday as a cold
front moves across our area; small craft operators will likely
need to exercise caution during this time. Winds will decrease to
around 10 kts on Wednesday with relatively smooth seas expected
through Thursday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

While conditions will be dry, RH values will remain above critical
thresholds and thus red flag warning conditions are not forecast
over the next few days.


.HYDROLOGY...

No flooding concerns are anticipated through the next several
days.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   28  63  40  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   38  63  51  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        32  62  40  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        30  60  39  57  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      29  60  38  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    26  61  38  68  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  35  62  52  65  39 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening to 8 AM
     EST /7 AM CST/ Monday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     Washington.

     Frost Advisory from 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening to 8 AM
     EST /7 AM CST/ Monday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Monday for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CST Monday for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Pullin
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Lahr

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion