FXUS62 KTAE 230536

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1236 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...

Conditions becoming generally MVFR tonight with areas of patchy
fog bringing the possibility of localized IFR, especially near
VLD. Conditions will begin to improve after sunrise becoming VFR
by mid to late morning.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

00 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure off the
Southeast in the Western Atlantic. This has generally light
southeast to southerly flow in place across the region. The local
airmass near the surface remains quite humid with surface dewpoints
in the lower 60s. The 00 UTC KTAE sounding shows a very dry airmass
in place generally above 850mb.

Primary concern tonight is for fog development. Last couple of
satellite images does show some increasing low cloudiness over
the Florida Big Bend, but no obvious signs of low stratus
developing yet. While there is some potential for fog/stratus to
develop across the region by morning, the best chance looks to be
across South Central Georgia, as shown in the last few runs of the
HRRR. This is currently depicted well in the inherited forecast,
so no changes are planned at this time. Temperatures are on track
and lows should be around 60.

.SHORT TERM [Friday and Saturday night]...

Deep layer ridge will slowly be shifting eastward resulting in more
southerly low level flow developing by Saturday. Slightly higher
mainly layer moisture will begin edging eastward into the portions
of the FL panhandle and southeast AL Saturday but not enough to
warrant mention of showers due largely to dry air aloft.  The large
ridge affecting the region will continue the pattern of warm and
generally dry weather. High temps in the lower to mid 80s with lows
in the lower 60s with some patchy fog possible. By Saturday
night...large mid to upper level trough over the central CONUS
pushes ewd as shortwave energy moves into the TN and Ohio Valley
areas. This will help bring a cold front to from central TN to the
lower MS valley by early Sunday morning. Continued with a low chance
of showers over the wrn zones as moisture ahead of the front
supports a few showers. Warmer overnight lows in the lower to middle
60s expected.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

As mid-upper level trough and cold front move into the area Sunday
and Monday elevated rain chances are expected. Some instability will
lead to chances of isolated thunderstorms along with the showers
from Sunday into Monday. A weak wave of low pressure may develop
Monday over AL and GA and move northeastward. This low pressure will
help drive the front southeastward but upper level flow becomes less
conducive for ascent as main energy shifts northeast. By Monday
night into Tuesday...500 mb heights become more zonal and the front
will stall over northeast Gulf waters with sfc high pressure builds
north of the area. Lower rain chances anticipated during this period.
Front may work back northward Wed and Thu with a low chance of
showers anticipated again. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s are
possible again on Sunday, with highs mainly in the 70s next week
after the front moves slightly south of our area though could see
highs reach around 80 again by Thursday south-southwest low level
flow develops as front pushes back north of the area.


Easterly to southeasterly winds from 10 to 15 knots will prevail
through Saturday...with more southerly flow Sunday ahead of the next
cold front. Cold front will move into area waters Sunday night into
Monday which will then stall then move back northward by mid week.
Seas will generally range from 2 to 4 feet with highest seas across
our southwestern marine zones.


No fire weather concerns are anticipated through the next several
days as high RH values persist across our area.


Little to no rainfall is expected for the next few days. The next
chance of moderate to heavy rainfall will be from Sunday through
Monday, mainly across northern and western parts of our area.
However, latest models have decreased projected rainfall totals
during this period, so widespread flooding does not appear likely.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   83  62  82  62  79 /   0  10   0  10  30
Panama City   79  63  78  66  77 /  10  10   0  30  50
Dothan        83  61  81  64  79 /  10  10  10  20  50
Albany        82  62  82  62  81 /   0  10  20  10  30
Valdosta      83  63  83  62  82 /  10  10   0  10  10
Cross City    83  63  83  63  81 /  20  10   0  10  10
Apalachicola  77  64  76  65  76 /   0  10   0  20  40


FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ early this
     morning for Coastal Bay-South Walton.



NEAR TERM...Godsey

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion