FXUS62 KTAE 171919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
319 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Fall weather has finally arrived, as cooler air behind the surface
front that moved through the region yesterday has settled into the
area this afternoon. Expect breezy northeasterly winds to dwindle
this evening as mixing ceases with the loss of daytime heating.
Mostly clear skies will promote excellent radiational cooling,
allowing temperatures to fall into the low to mid 50s region wide,
with upper 50s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

This period should remain dry. At upper levels, a short wave trough
will sweep overhead with little fan fair Wednesday night into Thursday
with a ridge to follow. At the surface, high pressure centered over
the Mid Atlantic states Wednesday will drift west to the Apalachians
Thursday night. Low level winds will remain out of the northeast,
generally a rain-free pattern for this part of the country during
fall. Temperatures will edge upward, but will remain more fall-
like than we have had to endure for most of this month. Look for
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Wednesday and 80-85 on
Thursday. Overnight lows will range from the lower 50s over
Southeast AL to the lower 60s across the Southeast Big Bend
Wednesday night and just a couple of degrees higher on Thursday

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The upper ridge will slide east of the area on Saturday with a
trough deepening over the Southern Plains or Lower Mississippi
Valley on Sunday. That trough will move eastward across the eastern
Gulf States early next week. The Euro is faster and more energetic
with this system than the GFS. This will mainly impact QPF. For now,
we show highest PoPs on Monday at around 40%, but that will go up
if the Euro solution is closer to reality.


.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

VFR conditions through the period with northeasterly prevailing
winds. Sustained winds this afternoon will run around or just above
10kts, with gusts to 20 kts. Gusts will cease this evening with
winds remaining AOB 10kts through the reminder of the period.



A prolonged period of elevated east to northeast winds will persist
for much of the week with cautionary to marginal advisory conditions
into the weekend. Winds will swing around to onshore and diminish
early next week ahead of a frontal system.



Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH remaining above critical values.



There are no significant flooding concerns expected through the



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   54  80  59  84  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  79  61  82  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        49  76  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        48  77  53  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      52  78  58  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    59  82  62  84  64 /   0  10   0  10   0
Apalachicola  58  80  63  82  66 /   0   0   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM...Pullin

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion